[2025–2026] Week 19: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock
Reading assignment and questions for week 19 of the Value Investing Seminar
(Note: If you are just joining the seminar, please start by reading the Introduction)
Reading Michael Shearn’s work shouldn’t necessarily tell you what your own investing checklist should look like. Instead, it should give you ideas and a framework.
You should start building your own checklist early in your investing journey. As your approach evolves, so should your checklist.
For some of you, you are going to want to have an actual checklist that you go through each time, akin to what a pilot does. Others will only refer to it from time to time, as a store of mental models and ideas. Regardless of how you use it, it will be a useful repository of your current investing process.
Note: For those who want to read ahead, our next and final reading will be The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler.
Week 19 assignment is to read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and answer the following questions:
Question 1: What are the common characteristics of superforecasters?
Question 2: What are the common characteristics of the average/not very good forecasters?
Question 3: By yourself, predict: Tesla market share of all cars globally by 2030. Explain your reasoning.
Question 4: What ideas from this book can you incorporate into your own investing?
Now it’s your turn:
Submit your answers in the comments below this article with all your answers in a single comment. I will engage with some of the answers each week and highlight some of the ones I find most insightful in next week’s seminar assignment article.
Engage with the answers of some of your fellow seminar members in the comments below. Remember – the goal is to learn together. Be kind, be respectful and try to add to our learning as a community.
Feel free to ask any questions about the reading in your comment.
Until next week,
Gary
About the author
Gary Mishuris, CFA is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Silver Ring Value Partners, an investment firm that seeks to apply its intrinsic value approach to safely compound capital over the long-term. He also teaches the Value Investing Seminar at the F.W. Olin Graduate School of Business.
Q1:
- Curious, likes to learn
- Question beliefs, actively open-minded
- Consider a plethora of possibilities--dragon eyes.
---- What would have to be true for __ to happen?
---- What would have to be true for __ NOT to happen?
- Look for additional perspectives to synthesize with their own
- Analyze their assumptions critically.
---- Would I be convinced by this I was someone else?
---- Where are the holes?
---- Assume they are wrong
- Are okay with uncertainty, not limited to binary thinking
- Update their forecast constantly
- Anchor on an outside view, a base rate (how common is X in the big picture)
- Embraces probabilistic thinking
- Growth mindset
- Practices
- Learns and adjusts, okay getting things wrong, desires 'light' to expose mistakes so they grow
- Stable
- Cultivates relationships where they can safely be challenged, challenge, be wrong, get help and help others.
- Giver
Q2:
- Less updating of forecasts
- Less granular in predictions
- Fixed mindset
- Prone to easier route, less critical thinking and avoidance of the harder question
- One perspective analysis, stuck on a Big Idea
- Prefers certainty of uncertainty
- Doesn't self-critique
- Anchors on the specific story and looks for facts to justify it (inside view first)
- Under/overreacts to new information, big swings
- More ego in process
- Doesn't seek feedback on accuracy of forecast
Q3:
What information would allow me to answer this question?
In 2030, how many cars will be sold?
How many car buyers will want EV?
How many will choose a Tesla?
Develop baselines:
How many cars are sold last year? ---- ~90 million
How many of those where EV's last year? ---- ~ 20 million
How many were Tesla? ---- ~1.5 million
Baseline: 22% of cars are sold globally are EV. Tesla's current market share is of EVs is 7.5%, but 1.6% of world EV. Currently, Tesla doesn’t dominate the global EV market.
2030: Would the baseline numbers change? How/Why?
Will the number of cars sold per year change? ---- Cars are big ticket items. I don't see a massive increase. If anything, economic challenges could pressure these numbers down. Tesla demand: +/-1% Plausible
What's the EV car trend been like over the past 5-10 years? Growing? Decreasing? Leveling out? ---- Loss of tax credits in the US decreased demand for EV and there are still looming challenges for EVs. However, I see more EV cars on the road and more infrastructure to support them, so I think it's growing. I don't think people will stop buying them altogether, but the pace of adoption may be slow for a while still. I don't think by 2030 there will yet be a sweeping increase. Tesla demand: + 0-0.5% Probable
How many EV buyers will choose a Tesla? ---- Tesla doesn't have global 'moat' on EV cars anymore. Other companies can produce as or more desirable EV cars (cheaper, comfortable, roomier, better batteries). Although Tesla does dominate, I've seen more variety in my area lately. My experience is US based where I see a lot of Tesla's out there in comparison to other companies. But I'm aware that globally there are other dominate brands that have gained market share. I don't see them getting a bigger share of the market. Tesla demand: +/- 0-0.5% Probable
What would have to be true for MORE than base? ---- US tax credits would be helpful. China consumer switching back to Tesla (not likely due to price point differences) Tesla demand: +3% Very unlikely
What would have to be true for LESS than base? ---- EV Cars from other countries become dominate in the US market. (plausible, but that's a steep slope) Tesla demand: -1% Less likely
Forecast: Telsa in 2030 has a market share of 0.5%-2%
Q4:
Many items are applicable. I'd like to develop deeper critical thinking in my thesis building process. Specifically, I'd like to work on developing more 'other hands' and negative thesis. I'd like to be more creative and dig to find the real questions, not just the surface bait and switch question. I want to add the outside view first so I'm anchoring closer to reality than just the 'story'.
Q1. The ability to think. Using appropriate tools and questions, having the ability to change their mind, have the ability to be wrong, looks at the situation from many perspectives - logic and psycho-logic, looks at situation from the view of the opponent, decision making is on a spectrum - the fox and hedgehog analogy, start with an outside view - a wider spectrum, have active open mindedness, use probabilistic thinking, unpacks questions into component parts, Fermi - separates knowable from unknowable, their forecasts are a product of careful thought and nuanced judgement. Uses more System 2 thinking. Updates forecasts more frequently and in smaller increments.
Q2, Doesn't consider alternative views, or a wide enough spectrum of viewpoint, and not comfortable being wrong, uses percentages as absolutes. Uses more system 1 thinking which introduces unchallenged biases. Basically thinking in the opposite of the qualities mentioned in question 1.
Q3. 2%. A lot of the world population doesn't have cars, so I would look at the percentages of the world population by location, and income levels. How many people already have cars and how many don't. How many of those that don't will be purchasing them in the next 5 years. How cars right now are electric and how may gas powered. How many people live lifestyles which would be appropriate to using electric cars. How much of the population have access to charge the vehicle. How many need to be able to travel long distances which would be more suited for gas powered vehicles.
Q4. Improve both the quality and scope of the questions I ask. Being more conscious of the biases I have and moving more into System 2 style thinking. Use Charlie's mental models - invert, always invert.